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Clinical Microbiology and Infection

Elsevier BV

Preprints posted in the last 7 days, ranked by how well they match Clinical Microbiology and Infection's content profile, based on 62 papers previously published here. The average preprint has a 0.03% match score for this journal, so anything above that is already an above-average fit.

1
Immune Checkpoint Blockade Modifies Drug-Associated Toxicity Across Phenotypes and Time

Mukherjee, E. M.; Asiaee, A.; Park, D.; Krantz, M. S.; Stone, C. A.; Martin-Pozo, M.; Phillips, E. J.

2026-09-02 dermatology 10.64898/2026.08.31.26361880 medRxiv
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Importance: Immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) produce diverse immune toxicities, but whether checkpoint blockade also modifies associations between other drugs and adverse events is poorly understood. Objective: To define ICI-associated toxicity organization and determine whether drug-associated adverse events and onset vary with ICI exposure and checkpoint pathway. Design and Setting: Cross-sectional analysis of deduplicated FAERS reports from 2016 through 2025; analyses performed in 2026. Participants: Among 13,701,106 deduplicated reports, 2,365,269 were cancer associated and 256,940 contained an ICI. Median age among cancer reports with observed age was 66 years (IQR, 56-75 years); 1,031,999 (43.6%) were female and 1,003,154 (42.4%) were male. Exposures: ICI exposure in any reported drug role, individual primary-suspect drugs, and checkpoint-pathway exposure. Main Outcomes and Measures: Reporting odds ratios (ORs), cross-organ adverse-event communities, adjusted primary-suspect drug x ICI interaction ORs for Stevens-Johnson syndrome/toxic epidermal necrolysis (SJS/TEN), drug reaction with eosinophilia and systemic symptoms (DRESS), acute generalized exanthematous pustulosis (AGEP), interstitial nephritis, drug-induced liver injury (DILI), and vomiting (VOM), and accelerated failure-time model time ratios for documented onset. Results: Of 3001 eligible Preferred Terms in cancer-associated reports, 2091 differed at a false discovery rate (FDR) less than .05. Four cross-organ toxicity communities were identified. Of 138 eligible drug-phenotype pairs, 65 had FDR-significant interactions, including moxifloxacin-SJS/TEN amplification (interaction OR, 101.72; 95% CI, 39.11-264.55), enfortumab vedotin-SJS/TEN attenuation (interaction OR, 0.17; 95% CI, 0.13-0.23), and omeprazole-interstitial nephritis amplification (interaction OR, 10.35; 95% CI, 7.62-14.05). Among 60,324 reports contributing to temporal analyses, ICI exposure was associated with longer adjusted documented time to onset for 5 of 6 phenotypes (time ratios, 1.37-1.59) but not AGEP (time ratio, 0.99; 95% CI, 0.67-1.46). Temporal associations also differed across checkpoint pathways. Conclusions and Relevance: ICIs were associated with a structured cross-organ toxicity landscape, phenotype-specific modification of drug-associated adverse events, and distinct temporal patterns across checkpoint pathways. These findings support checkpoint blockade as a modifier of drug-associated toxicity and motivate longitudinal and mechanistic validation.

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Global research trends and emerging fronts in refractory and macrolide-resistant Mycoplasma pneumoniae pneumonia in children: a bibliometric analysis (2000 2025)

Li, D.; Chen, H.; Shen, C.

2026-08-31 infectious diseases 10.64898/2026.08.25.26361371 medRxiv
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Background: Refractory and macrolide-resistant Mycoplasma pneumoniae pneumonia (MPP) has emerged as a major challenge in pediatric respiratory medicine, amplified by the post-2023 resurgence. However, a systematic overview of the research landscape specific to treatment-refractory and drugresistant disease in children remains lacking. Methods: Research articles and reviews on pediatric refractory or macrolide-resistant MPP published between 2000 and 2025 were retrieved from OpenAlex using Boolean searches. After screening, 2,286 records were quantitatively analyzed for annual output, contributing countries/institutions, thematic clusters, and citation-burst dynamics using Python. Results: Annual publications grew exponentially, with a pronounced surge after 2023 (n=378 in 2025). China produced the highest volume (45.1%) but recorded fewer citations per publication than the US, Japan, and Canada. The literature resolved into four clusters: macrolide resistance/molecular basis, epidemiology, etiology/co-infection, and refractory disease management. Burst analysis showed an evolution from earlier fronts like 23S rRNA mutations and azithromycin to recent emerging trends like pandemic-related co-circulation, genotype surveillance, and co-infection. Conclusions: Research on pediatric refractory and resistant MPP is expanding rapidly, shifting in emphasis from etiologic descriptions toward resistance mechanisms and clinical management. Standardizing the treatment of macrolide-unresponsive disease and post-pandemic epidemiological surveillance represent the principal directions for future work. Keywords: Mycoplasma pneumoniae; children; macrolide resistance; refractory pneumonia; bibliometric analysis; research trends

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Genotype-guided isoniazid dosing harmonizes drug exposure in 3HP tuberculosis preventive therapy

da Silva, K.; Sarkodie, S.; Marques, K.; Vieira, P.; Oliveira, R. D. d.; Pereira dos Santos, P. C.; Moreira Puga, M. A.; Costa, A. G.; Gregorio Machado, J. P.; Spener-Gomes, R.; Yang, E.; Savic, R.; Cordeiro-Santos, M.; Croda, J.; Andrews, J. R.

2026-09-01 infectious diseases 10.64898/2026.08.27.26360825 medRxiv
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Background: Polymorphisms in the N-acetyltransferase 2 (NAT2) gene explain much of the interindividual variation in isoniazid (INH) metabolism and determine risk of toxicities. However, there is limited evidence to guide INH dose adjustment according to the NAT2 acetylator profile in weekly rifapentine-INH tuberculosis preventive therapy (TPT). Methods: In a prospective, multicenter, within-subject PK trial (NCT05413551), adults initiating 3HP in Brazil were assigned genotype-guided INH doses (slow: 5 mg/kg <=300 mg; intermediate: 15 mg/kg <=900 mg; rapid: 25 mg/kg <=1,500 mg) alongside a standard 900 mg flat dose on an alternate occasion. AUC0-24 and C24 were estimated from serial blood samples; a two-compartment Michaelis-Menten population PK model characterized NAT2 effects on clearance. Results: Among 228 participants, 47.4% (108/228) were intermediate, 43.4% (99/228) slow, and 9.2% (21/228) rapid acetylators. Genotype-guided dosing reduced AUC0-24 variability approximately two-fold versus standard dosing (CV 58.8% vs 76.8%) and increased exposure uniformity (median AUC0-24 27.2 [IQR 18.8-41.3] vs 43.2 [27.3-71.0] mg h/L). Among slow acetylators, C24 >0.15 ug/mL decreased from 27/42 (64%) with standard dosing to 1/42 (2%) with genotype-guided dosing (P<0.0001). In 104 participants with intensive PK sampling, rapid acetylators receiving guided doses had AUC0-24 similar to standard-dose intermediate acetylators (42.8 vs 39.5 mg h/L; P=.63). Monte Carlo simulations supported doses of 600, 900, and 1,200 mg for slow, intermediate, and rapid acetylators, respectively. Conclusions: NAT2-guided isoniazid dosing reduced variation in drug levels, averting very low and high AUC and C24. These findings inform genotype-stratified dosing of INH for TPT, which might reduce toxicities and improve outcomes.

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Trends in incidence and antimicrobial resistance for five major causes of bacteraemia in a Canadian metropolitan area, 2006-22: a genomic and antimicrobial use cohort study

Pham, T. M.; Smith, J. T.; Mortimer, T. D.; Grad, Y.; Earl, A. M.; Lewis, I. A.; PRIME Consortium,

2026-08-31 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.08.27.26361471 medRxiv
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Background Using a population-based cohort from the Calgary Health Zone (CHZ), Canada, we integrated longitudinal antimicrobial susceptibility and prescribing data with the whole genome sequences of five major pathogens. We aimed to assess how antimicrobial resistance (AMR) responds to prescribing changes and determine which bacterial strains shape these dynamics. Methods We analysed antibiotic prescribing rates, clinical and genomic data from 7,271 Staphylococcus aureus, 1,609 Enterococcus faecalis, 801 Enterococcus faecium, 11,363 Escherichia coli, and 2,319 Klebsiella pneumoniae isolates, associated with bacteraemia episodes in the CHZ between 2006-2022. Genomic clusters (referred to as strains) were identified using StrainGST and assigned to known sequence types (STs) or clonal complexes (CCs). Strain-level incidence, stratified by community-onset (isolates collected [&le;]48h after admission) and hospital-onset (>48h after admission), AMR phenotypes, and prescribing rates were modelled using negative-binomial and binomial regression. Temporal trends were quantified using average annual percentage change (AAPC). Findings Between 2010-2022, fluoroquinolone prescribing declined in both community (AAPC=-6.8% [95% CI -8.1, -5.4]; p<0.0001) and hospital settings (AAPC=-5.1% [-6.5, -3.7]; p<0.0001). This was accompanied by a significant reduction in fluoroquinolone resistance among Gram-positive species. Specifically, S aureus bacteraemia resistant to clinically important antibiotics, cloxacillin, ciprofloxacin, erythromycin, and clindamycin, declined from 2006 to 2022, mostly in hospital-onset cases (AAPC=-16.0%, [-19.3%, -12.7%], p<0.0001). In E coli, ceftriaxone and ciprofloxacin resistance were clustered in ST131 and the emerging ST1193; the latter increased steadily, particularly in community-onset cases (AAPC=17.7%, [0.0%, 30.0%], p<0.0001). CTX-M-27-producing E coli ST131 strains increased (AAPC=23.8%, [17.4%, 30.5%], p<0.0001) between 20082022, while CTX-M-14-producing E coli ST131 declined (AAPC=-15.9%, [-21.3%, -10.2%], p<0.0001) between 2013-2022. These trends were paralleled by an increase in community cephalosporin prescribing (AAPC=7.3%, [4.2%, 10.5%], p<0.0001) between 2010-2022. For K pneumoniae, hypervirulent ST23 was most common (N=88) with an increasing trend in incidence (AAPC=3.0%, [-2.8%, 9.2%]) between 2006-2019. Conclusions The contrasting resistance trends between Gram-positive and Gram-negative species underscore the complexity of AMR control efforts. Effective strategies will require stewardship efforts targeting multiple drug classes, genomic surveillance for emerging resistant strains, and interventions extending beyond hospital settings.

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Female contraceptive cover duration for miltefosine-containing regimens for the treatment of women with leishmaniasis

Chu, W.-Y.; Alves, F.; Dorlo, T. P. C.

2026-09-02 infectious diseases 10.64898/2026.08.31.26360682 medRxiv
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Introduction Miltefosine is the only approved oral antileishmanial agent, but its use in women of childbearing potential (WOCBP) is restricted due to preclinical teratogenicity. Current labeling recommends contraception during treatment and for at least five months thereafter, based solely on its long terminal elimination half-life. This study re-evaluated the required contraceptive duration using an exposure margin-based approach. Methods Virtual populations were generated from anthropometric data of 382 Indian, 4,462 Eastern African, and 4,019 Brazilian WOCBP with leishmaniasis. Published population pharmacokinetic models were used to simulate miltefosine exposure following 14-42-day regimens for visceral leishmaniasis (VL), post-kala-azar dermal leishmaniasis (PKDL), and cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL). A developmental safety exposure threshold was derived from the rat no-observed-adverse-effect level (0.6 mg/kg/day for 10 days) and adjusted using a 10-fold safety margin. Contraceptive durations resulting in median residual post-contraception exposure (AUCEOC-{infty}) below this threshold were considered supportive of contraceptive discontinuation. Results The developmental safety exposure threshold was estimated at 2.5 mg{middle dot}day/L. Despite pharmacokinetic differences across geographical regions and disease manifestations, required minimum contraceptive durations were consistent: three months from treatment initiation for the 14-day regimen, four months for 21- and 28-day regimens, and five months for the 42-day regimen. For the 14-day regimen, a single dose of a long-acting injectable contraceptive administered at treatment initiation would provide sufficient coverage. Conclusion An exposure margin-based approach supports shorter contraceptive durations than current recommendations. For the 14-day VL regimen, three months of contraception may provide a practical alternative to current labeling.

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Development and Validation of a Point-of-Care Triage Scorecard to Enhance Tuberculosis Case Detection During Active Community Screening in Yogyakarta, Indonesia

Catrianiningsih, D.; Felisia, F.; Abdalla, A. S.; Puspitasari, S.; Dwihardiani, B.; Mulia, H. N.; Hidayat, A.; Triasih, R.

2026-08-31 infectious diseases 10.64898/2026.08.27.26361569 medRxiv
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In primary healthcare centers lacking advanced imaging, community-based active tuberculosis (TB) case finding often relies on basic symptom screening. This approach often misses cases and leads to the inefficient allocation of rapid molecular testing (RMT). We aimed to develop and internally validate a simple clinical triage scorecard to improve TB detection and guide RMT use in resource-constrained settings. We conducted a retrospective cross-sectional study of 15,137 adults ([&ge;]18 years) evaluated within the Zero TB Yogyakarta program (2020-2025). Participants with complete clinical assessments and confirmatory GeneXpert results were included. Using multivariable logistic regression, we identified independent clinical predictors, which were subsequently transformed into an integer-based point scorecard. Model performance was evaluated via discrimination and calibration, utilizing bootstrap resampling (1,000 iterations) for internal validation. Among the 15,137 participants, 251 (1.7%) were GeneXpert-positive. The final multivariable model identified eight independent predictors: age, male sex, body mass index, prolonged cough, hemoptysis, unexplained weight loss, TB contact history, and diabetes mellitus. The model demonstrated strong predictive accuracy, with an optimism-adjusted AUROC of 0.836 and good calibration. When translated to the integer scorecard and compared directly to standard national symptom screening, the scorecard performed (AUROC 0.81 vs. 0.73; p<0.001). At a high sensitivity cut off score of [&ge;] 0, the tool achieved 93.63% sensitivity and 41.33% specificity. This point-of-care clinical scorecard provides higher diagnostic accuracy than standard symptom screening algorithms. By offering flexible operational thresholds, it empowers local health programs to dynamically balance the urgency of case detection with available diagnostic capacity, optimizing GeneXpert allocation where advanced radiological imaging is unavailable.

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Dynamic Clinical States and Transitions During the First 72 Hours of Intensive Care After Acute Stroke

LEI, P.; XU, Y.; ZHANG, Y.

2026-09-01 intensive care and critical care medicine 10.64898/2026.08.30.26361738 medRxiv
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Background: The condition of a patient with acute stroke often changes within hours of ICU admission. Prognostic work here targets fixed endpoints predicted from admission data, and trajectory phenotyping assigns one label per patient. We used longitudinal ICU data to identify interpretable dynamic clinical states, characterize transitions between them, and relate the current state to later events. Methods: Retrospective cohort study of 6368 adults with acute stroke in MIMIC IV v3.1. The first 72 h were divided into twelve 6-hour windows, and a hidden Markov model was fitted to 21 neurological, physiological and organ support variables. State number was chosen against criteria fixed before fitting: statistical fit, restart stability, state occupancy and clinical interpretability. Generalized estimating equations related the current state to new mechanical ventilation and vasopressor use within 12 h, and to ICU death within 72 h. Eleven sensitivity analyses assessed the robustness of the state solution. Results: Four states were selected: neurologically preserved-low support, neurological impairment low support, impairment renal dysfunction and impairment-respiratory support (63.3%, 7.8%, 11.8% and 17.1% of windows). Within 72 h, 40.3% of patients changed state at least once, and transitions ran in both directions rather than along a single severity gradient. States were identified without outcome data, yet ICU mortality by last state ranged from 2.9% to 43.9%. Adjusted for age, sex, subtype and Charlson index, the current state remained associated with organ-support escalation and death. State prevalence differed by at most 1.1 percentage points between training and test sets, and 10 of 11 sensitivity analyses gave a stable four-state solution (ARI 0.754 0.955). Conclusions: The early ICU course of acute stroke can be represented as movement among a small number of clinically interpretable states. The representation was reproducible in a held out set and across admission eras, but requires validation in an independent database before any clinical use.

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Integrated MB-PhD training is a long-term investment in the clinician-scientist workforce

Jafree, D. J.; Sun, M.; Stewart, G. W.; Gishen, F.; Swanton, C.; Motallebzadeh, R.; UCL MB-PhD Outcomes Study Group,

2026-08-31 health policy 10.64898/2026.08.26.26361003 medRxiv
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Background: Clinician-scientists translate clinical observation into discovery, trials, and policy, yet this workforce is shrinking across health systems worldwide. Integrated MB-PhD training, pausing medical training to complete a PhD before clinical exposure or specialisation, is one route into this career. We aimed to evaluate the long-term value of MB-PhD training and the barriers to clinical-academic careers these face after graduation. Methods: We evaluated all 131 graduates (29.8% female) who entered the University College London (UCL) MB-PhD programme over a 25-year period (1994-2018). Bibliometric outputs were collated via an inter-linked information system. Concurrently, all 131 graduates were invited to respond to open-ended questions on career benefits and structural barriers; 99 (75.6%) responded, and responses were independently coded into themes, which were then reviewed and confirmed by a Study Group of 107 individuals, including the 91 respondents who agreed to participate further. Results: Graduates produced 5,877 publications (1,141 first-author, 819 corresponding-author), attracting 350,754 citations, with a mean relative citation ratio of 3.30 {+/-} 0.47, approximately three times the field average and sustained across three decades of programme entry. Graduates secured an estimated $157.55 million across 99 grants, released 465 public datasets, and were named investigators on 31 clinical trials across five continents. Among the 99 survey respondents, 49.5% held consultant-grade posts, 72.7% remained research-active, and 25.3% had reached senior academic grade. Open-ended responses were coded into five recurring structural barriers, subsequently confirmed by the Study Group: insufficient protected research time (72.2% of responses), unsupportive training structures and limited career opportunities (36.7%, 24.4% of responses), funding and pay barriers (22.2% of responses), and lack of mentorship or geographical/family constraints (14.4%, 13.3% of responses). Conclusions: Integrated MB-PhD training generates sustained academic productivity and leadership, but structural barriers threaten retention of graduates within clinical-academic careers. Protecting research time, stabilising funding and pay, and reducing geographic instability are needed to retain the clinician-scientists that health systems have already invested in training.

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The accuracy of urine-based mycobacterial antigens to detect childhood tuberculosis using an ultrasensitive immunoassay

Nkereuwem, E.; Misaghian, S.; Jaganath, D.; Calderon, R. I.; Luiz, J.; Paradkar, M.; Wambi, P.; Castro, R.; Nerurkar, R.; Wang, M.; Wohlstadter, J.; Franke, M. F.; Kampmann, B.; Kinikar, A.; Zar, H. J.; Segal, M.; Kato-Maeda, M.; Collins, J. M.; Swaney, D.; Cattamanchi, A.; Ernst, J. D.; Wobudeya, E.; Sigal, G.; The Combo Study,

2026-09-02 infectious diseases 10.64898/2026.08.28.26361530 medRxiv
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Background. Urine-based testing offers a promising non-sputum approach for diagnosing paediatric tuberculosis. However, the currently available lipoarabinomannan (LAM) assay shows limited sensitivity in children and is primarily indicated for those living with HIV. Co-detection of LAM with Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) proteins in urine could provide complementary pathogen-derived biomarkers that improve diagnostic performance. Methods. We developed an ultrasensitive multiplex electrochemiluminescence (ECL) immunoassay to measure Ag85B, CFP-10, ESAT-6, MPT32, and MPT64 in urine. We determined the analytical limits of detection and evaluated the diagnostic performance of individual proteins and LAM using urine samples from children with Confirmed, Unconfirmed, and Unlikely pulmonary tuberculosis enrolled across five high-burden countries (The Gambia, India, Peru, South Africa, and Uganda). Performance was assessed overall, by HIV and nutritional status, and across biomarker combinations. Findings. Urine samples from 630 children were analysed (median age was 4 years [IQR 2-8]; 44% female, 15% living with HIV, 19% underweight, 24% with Confirmed tuberculosis). The ECL assay achieved femtomolar limits of detection (1.5 to 4.0 fM). The sensitivity and specificity of individual Mtb proteins were 12-33% and 98-100%, respectively. Ag85B had the highest sensitivity (33%, 95% CI 26-41) for Confirmed tuberculosis and was similar to LAM. A four-antigen signature (Ag85B, MPT64, MPT32, LAM) was 50% sensitive (95% CI 42-58) and 94% specific (95% CI 90-96), and was significantly more sensitive than LAM alone, in particular among those without HIV. An additional sixteen (10%) of children with Unconfirmed TB had at least one Mtb protein or LAM detected. Interpretation. Multiple Mtb proteins are detectable in paediatric urine with high specificity, and multi-antigen signatures can augment sensitivity versus LAM alone. These findings demonstrate the potential of multi-antigen urine detection for childhood TB and define analytical targets for the development of future point-of-care diagnostics. Funding. National Institutes of Health.

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Prognostic Language and Subsequent Code-Status Limitation After Acute Brain Injury: A Multidatabase Observational Study

Gorenshtein, A.; Adiniaev, Y.; Srour, A.; Klang, E.; Daniel, O.

2026-08-31 intensive care and critical care medicine 10.64898/2026.08.27.26361534 medRxiv
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Purpose. Prognostic assessments after acute brain injury are largely narrative, and how prognostic language relates to subsequent care has not been measured at scale. We quantified where it is written and its association with a subsequent code-status limitation. Materials and Methods. Multidatabase observational study of adults with acute brain injury or a related neurologic emergency, using MIMIC-IV (2008-2019; discharge summaries and radiology reports) and a timestamped MIMIC-III cohort (notes and code-status orders). The exposure was documented prognostic language; outcomes were its association with a subsequent full-code-to-limitation transition, note-stream location, and completeness of documented command-following relative to structured Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) motor scores. Results. Among 31,993 admissions (27,054 patients; median age, 69 years; 54.9% male), prognostic language in the timestamped cohort (MIMIC-III) was associated with a subsequent code-status limitation after multivariable adjustment (adjusted hazard ratio, 4.3; 95% CI, 2.9-6.5; unadjusted 14-day cumulative incidence, 40% vs 8.5%), including the comfort-measures component (3.9), a higher-risk subgroup (4.4), and after acute-physiology adjustment (4.1); the association was concentrated in the first 3 days. Non-prognostic severity language showed no comparable association (hazard ratios, 1.1-1.3). Prognostic language localized almost entirely to the narrative (4.9% of discharge summaries vs 0.015% of radiology reports); command-following was undocumented in 55.7% of summaries, and no final-24-hour GCS motor score was charted in 72.8%. Conclusions. Documented prognostic language after acute brain injury was written in the narrative, not structured fields, and was associated with a subsequent code-status limitation after multivariable adjustment. This observational association cannot establish causation but warrants prospective study.

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Clinical features of COVID-19 patients hospitalized at the Tashkent State Medical University and risk factors for intensive care unit admission: a cross-sectional study from Uzbekistan, Central Asia

Rakhimov, B.; Choi, J.; Kim, K.; Tuychiev, L.; Shadmanov, A.; Mamatkulov, B.

2026-08-31 infectious diseases 10.64898/2026.08.28.26361631 medRxiv
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Background. The clinical course of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), and the ability to anticipate which patients will require intensive care, were poorly characterized in Central Asia during the first pandemic wave. We aimed to describe the clinical features of hospitalized COVID-19 patients at the Tashkent State Medical University, Uzbekistan, and to identify risk factors for intensive care unit (ICU) admission. Methods. In this single-centre cross-sectional study, we reviewed the records of 2500 consecutive patients hospitalized between 11 April and 8 August 2020. Patients were grouped as asymptomatic or symptomatic, and symptomatic patients were compared by ICU versus non-ICU status. Groups were compared with chi-square or Fisher's exact and Mann-Whitney U tests. Univariable and multivariable logistic regression identified risk factors for ICU admission. Results. Of 2500 patients (median age 36 years; 60.9% male), 989 (39.6%) were asymptomatic and 1511 (60.4%) symptomatic. In total, 129 (5.2%) were admitted to the ICU and 38 (1.5%) died. ICU patients were older (median 56 vs 40.5 years) and more often had bilateral pneumonia, oxygen desaturation and cardiometabolic comorbidity. In the multivariable model (AUC 0.82), the independent predictors of ICU admission were ischemic heart disease (aOR 4.20), shortness of breath (aOR 3.22), hypertensive heart disease (aOR 2.93) and male sex (aOR 2.00). Conclusions. Older age, cardiometabolic comorbidity and respiratory compromise identified patients at high ICU risk. As one of the first clinical COVID-19 descriptions from Uzbekistan, these data provide a baseline for preparedness in Central Asia.

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Reassessing the epidemiology of blaCTX-M-15: Emergence of E. coli ST1193 and potential replacement of ST131.

Elena, A. X.; Batantou Mabandza, D.; Kluemper, U.; Breurec, S.; Dagot, C.; Berendonk, T. U.

2026-08-31 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.08.27.26361291 medRxiv
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The global dissemination of antimicrobial resistance is increasingly driven by bacterial clones combining antimicrobial resistance with enhanced virulence and environmental adaptability. Escherichia coli sequence type 131 (ST131) has historically been regarded as a major disseminator of the extended-spectrum {beta}-lactamase (ESBL) blaCTX-M-15. However, the emergence of E. coli ST1193 carrying blaCTX-M-15 may represent an ongoing shift in the epidemiology of this resistance determinant. Here, we investigated the prevalence, genomic characteristics, virulence and antimicrobial resistance potential of ST1193 in comparison with ST131. A total of 1,136 E. coli isolates were recovered from touristic and non-touristic environments, hospital-associated samples, and aircraft toilets in Guadeloupe. Isolates were whole-genome sequenced and analysed for antimicrobial resistance and virulence determinants. Additionally, publicly available genomic data comprising 1,215 blaCTX-M-15-positive ST131 and ST1193 isolates were analysed to assess temporal and geographical trends. ST1193 was significantly associated with aircraft-associated samples and exhibited a higher antimicrobial resistance gene burden than ST131, while maintaining a comparable virulence factor content. Analysis of publicly available genomes revealed similar temporal emergence patterns for blaCTX-M-15-positive ST1193 and ST131, with ST1193 showing a more recent distribution and a higher number of deposited isolates in recent years, consistent with a potential ongoing clonal replacement. Comparative genomic analysis identified numerous virulence and adaptation-associated genes shared between both sequence types, while ST1193 additionally carried distinct determinants, including components of the transmissible locus of stress tolerance. Furthermore, quinolone resistance-associated mutations were strongly linked to blaCTX-M-15 carriage, particularly among ST1193 isolates. Together, these findings identify E. coli ST1193 as an emerging high-risk clone with substantial potential for blaCTX-M-15 dissemination. Its association with aircraft-associated samples further highlights the potential role of air travel in long-distance transmission and underscores the need to reconsider current surveillance strategies focused predominantly on ST131.

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Case Fatality of Leptospirosis in the Dominican Republic, 2012-2026: A 14-Year National Surveillance Analysis

Sanchez, J. J.; Alcantara, L. V.; De Luna, D.; Aleuy, O. A.; Bellon, M. B.; Cruz Raposo, J. L.; Dye, T. D. V.

2026-09-03 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.09.01.26361950 medRxiv
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Background: Case fatality reflects the quality and timeliness of clinical care for leptospirosis, yet no study has examined it at a national level in the Dominican Republic (DR), where leptospirosis is endemic. We describe the case fatality rate (CFR) of leptospirosis in the DR between 2012 and 2026 and identify associations with mortality. Methods: We conducted an analytical cross-sectional study, using national surveillance records merged with a discharge-condition extract via a composite key. We calculated CFR with Wilson 95% confidence intervals among 5,412 valid cases (suspected, probable, or confirmed) reported from January 2012 through June 2026. We compared proportions with Pearson's chi-square test, assessed annual trend with ordinary least squares linear regression, and fitted multivariable logistic regression models to account for confounding. Results: Overall CFR was 8.5% (460/5,412), with no significant annual trend (p=0.372). CFR was higher in men than women (p < 0.001) and increased significantly with age (p < 0.001). Male gender (OR: 1.79; 95%CI: 1.18-2.73) and pre-existing comorbidity (OR: 1.76; 95% CI: 1.21- 2.57) were independent predictors of death. Clinical complications were the strongest predictor in the adjusted model (OR: 3.16; 95%CI: 2.17-4.61), attenuating the gender effect. CFR varied widely by province (2.43-22.22%) and correlated negatively with incidence at the province level (p = 0.066). Conclusions: Leptospirosis case fatality is concentrated among men, people with comorbidity, and those who develop clinical complications. These national, long-term findings can help prioritize clinical and surveillance resources as extreme weather events are expected to intensify across the Caribbean.

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INTerrupting prolifERation of Carbapenem resistance in Indonesia: clinical and genomic Evaluation of Pathways of Transmission (INTERCEPT) : a Study Protocol

Farida, H.; Hapsari, R.; Lestari, E. S.; Farhanah, N.; Roberts, A. P.; Graf, F. E.; Dacombe, R. E.; Moore, M. E.; Lewis, J. M.

2026-08-31 infectious diseases 10.64898/2026.08.28.26361608 medRxiv
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Background Carbapenem-resistant bacteria are a major global public health threat, classified as critical priority pathogens by the WHO. In Indonesia, despite a national antimicrobial resistance control programme established by the Ministry of Health in 2015, resistance rates continue to rise, including increasing carbapenem resistance among clinically important bacteria. Strengthening approaches to directly interrupt transmission is essential, yet transmission pathways remain poorly understood with limited research and policy guidance within the Indonesian context. Methods and analysis The INTERCEPT study is a UK-Indonesia multidisciplinary collaboration aiming to identify transmission routes of carbapenem-resistant bacteria across healthcare and community settings, and the mechanisms of resistance gene transfer between bacteria and mobile genetic elementss. We will conduct genomic surveillance of hospital inpatients, healthcare workers, hospital environments, and surrounding communities, including wastewater systems, combined with genomic analyses and mathematical transmission modelling. A cohort of patients with bloodstream infections will be recruited to evaluate resistant bacteria, treatment practices, and clinical outcomes. Qualitative research will explore behavioural and system-level factors influencing transmission and intervention implementation. Findings will inform stakeholder workshops to co-design context-specific interventions, with pilot intervention over 9 months with pre- and post-intervention assessment to guide scalable strategies to reduce AMR transmission. Discussion The INTERCEPT study addresses carbapenem resistance in Indonesia using an integrated approach combining microbiological surveillance, genomics, modelling, and qualitative methods. Strengths include cross-sectoral analysis (patients, workers, environment) and participatory intervention design. Limitations include geographic scope restricted to Central Java, Indonesia.

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Comparative effectiveness of preventive strategies against medically-attended respiratory syncytial virus in U.S. infants during the first six months of life, 2023-2025

Kim, S. S.; Zissette, S. Z.; Van Meter, C.; Shiiba, M.; Bruck, M.; Tippett, A.; Kamidani, S.; Benkeser, D.; McQuade, E. R.

2026-08-31 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.08.25.26361361 medRxiv
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Importance: Maternal vaccination and long-acting monoclonal antibodies are now available in the U.S. to prevent RSV. Long-acting monoclonal antibody administration in the U.S. commonly occurs after hospital discharge in outpatient settings, leaving some infants unprotected early in life when severe RSV risk is highest. Comparative effectiveness between the two interventions and whether delays affect effectiveness estimates have not been quantified. Objective: To evaluate the effectiveness of infant long-acting monoclonal antibody strategies and a maternal vaccination strategy, each compared to no intervention, and the comparative effectiveness of intervention strategies when accounting for real-world delays in monoclonal antibody receipt. Design: Cohort study using target trial emulation to compare four strategies for prevention of RSV-related outcomes. Setting: The U.S. between 2023 and 2025 using a nationwide database of employer-sponsored commercial insurance claims. Participants: 120,586 commercially insured mother-infants, whose infants were born in the U.S. during the 2023-2024 or 2024-2025 RSV season. Infants who could not be paired with their mother's record, did not enroll in commercial insurance within 75 days from birth, received palivizumab, and had an implausible birth date were excluded. Interventions: Comparison of four RSV prevention strategies: (i) maternal RSVpreF; (ii) long-acting monoclonal antibody given within the first week of life (mAb as intended); (iii) long-acting monoclonal antibody given within a six-month grace period from birth (mAb within grace period); and (iv) a control. Main outcomes and measures: Effectiveness against first RSV-associated hospitalization and medically-attended RSV illness was summarized using adjusted hazard ratios (aHR) and estimated using an inverse propensity weighting approach, with weights accounting for maternal age, maternal comorbidities affecting pregnancy, obstetric and newborn complications, season, region, and birth timing relative to October 1. A weighted Kaplan Meier estimator was used to estimate strategy-specific cumulative incidence of RSV outcomes over time. Results: In the first five weeks of life, the mAb within grace period strategy doubled the hazard of RSV hospitalization (aHR: 2.0 [95% CI: 1.0-4.9]) and increased the hazard of medically-attended RSV (aHR: 1.6 [95% CI: 1.0-2.7]) compared to the maternal RSVpreF strategy. The hazard for RSV hospitalization was similar for the mAb as intended strategy compared to the maternal RSVpreF strategy (aHR = 0.9 [95% CI: 0.3-1.9]). Conclusions and relevance: RSVpreF and monoclonal antibodies were similarly effective when monoclonal antibodies were administered close to birth, but when accounting for real-world delays in monoclonal antibody receipt, the maternal RSVpreF strategy was more effective than the mAb within grace period strategy.

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Policy implementation gap: a qualitative evaluation of the implementation of Ghana's national cancer control strategy

Jawhara, B.; Baatiema, L.

2026-08-31 health policy 10.64898/2026.08.28.26361597 medRxiv
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Background: Cancer is a growing public health challenge in Ghana, with 27,385 new cases and 17,944 deaths recorded in 2022. Ghana developed a National Cancer Control Strategy (NCCS) in 2011 to guide prevention, early detection, treatment, and palliative care. The strategy expired in 2016 and has not been formally evaluated or renewed, leaving cancer control efforts without a guiding policy framework for nearly a decade. This study examined how the strategy was implemented, what barriers were encountered and what stakeholders recommend for a strengthened national cancer response. Methods: We conducted a qualitative descriptive study using semi-structured key informant interviews. Fifteen participants were recruited through purposive sampling, supplemented by snowball referrals, representing three groups: Ministry of Health policymakers, frontline healthcare providers and representatives of cancer-focused non-governmental organisations. Data were collected between June and September 2025 and analysed using Braun and Clarke's six-phase thematic analysis framework, guided deductively by the WHO Health Systems Building Blocks framework Results: Three themes emerged: NCCS interventions and systems implemented, capturing progress in cancer awareness, HPV vaccination and pilot screening programmes alongside persistent geographic and financial inequities in access; barriers to implementation, including inadequate financing, infrastructure and workforce shortages, the absence of a national cancer registry and governance failures, among them the finding that no frontline healthcare provider interviewed had any awareness of the NCCS; and recommended implementation strategies, including co-production of a renewed strategy, establishment of a dedicated National Cancer Control Programme, expanded health insurance coverage and decentralisation of oncology services. Conclusion: The NCCS was not operationally embedded in the health system. The evidence points to failures in policy dissemination as a constraint that precedes resource constraints. Addressing Ghana's rising cancer burden requires renewed political commitment, co-produced governance structures and accountability mechanisms. These findings have relevance for other low- and middle-income country settings facing similar challenges.

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Clinical evaluation of artificial intelligence for diagnostics of antibiotic-resistant bacteria

Hessel, M.; Inda Diaz, J. S.; Sjöberg, A.; Salva-Serra, F.; Helldal, L.; Jirstrand, M.; Johnning, A.; Kristiansson, E.; Skovbjerg, S.

2026-08-31 infectious diseases 10.64898/2026.08.27.26361401 medRxiv
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Antimicrobial resistance is a public health challenge, driving the need for rapid, cost-effective diagnostic support tools. Artificial intelligence (AI) may enable prediction of susceptibility to untested antibiotics from known susceptibility results, but prospective clinical validation is required before routine use. We evaluated an AI-based decision support method, trained on invasive isolates from the European Surveillance System (TESSy), for prediction of antibiotic susceptibility in clinical Escherichia coli urine isolates. The evaluation included 99 E. coli isolates from urine samples with diversity in age, sex, and antibiotic susceptibility. Predictions were evaluated for 14 antibiotics using patient metadata and susceptibility results for 4-8 antibiotics as input. Prediction uncertainty was handled using conformal prediction, allowing abstention when confidence was insufficient. EUCAST disk diffusion test results were used as reference and genomic sequence data was used to explore mechanisms of the AI performance. Without conformal prediction, 84% of predictions were correct when susceptibility results of six antibiotics were used to predict susceptibility to eight additional antibiotics. Across all predictions generated using susceptibility results for six antibiotics as input, the major and very major error rates were 19% and 12%, respectively. Prediction errors varied between antibiotics and were associated with certain phenotypic and genotypic resistance patterns. Conformal prediction reduced errors but increased abstentions; at confidence levels of 90%, 95%, and 97.5%, the model abstained in 9.6%, 14%, and 22% of instances. The method showed promising performance, but its clinical use remains limited and may require diagnostic data beyond susceptibility test results and demographic variables.

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Serial neoGFAP outperforms total GFAP for monitoring and 6-month outcome discrimination after moderate to severe traumatic brain injury: an exploratory single-site cohort study

Wang, K. K.; Cai, G.; Boukholda, K.; Kobeissy, F.; Elbayoumi, E.; Jackson, D.; Tehas, K.; Radeker, K.; DeLizza, A.; Popper, C.; Tsetsou, S.; Robertson, C.; Haskins, W. E.

2026-09-03 intensive care and critical care medicine 10.64898/2026.09.01.26361862 medRxiv
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Background: Serial glial fibrillary acidic protein (GFAP) trajectories have become an important framework for contextualizing evolving secondary-injury pathophysiology after moderate-to-severe traumatic brain injury (msTBI). However, total GFAP pools release and clearance signals that may be less useful for longitudinal bedside decisions than a proteoform-resolved assay. We compared total GFAP with neoGFAP, defined here as calpain-generated GFAP proteoforms intended to index active astroglial proteolysis during the subacute phase. Methods: We analyzed 651 serial serum samples from 95 msTBI patients from a previously described single-site cohort. Total GFAP and neoGFAP were measured on the same MSD platform from 6 to 240 hours after injury. Early (6 to 72 h) and late (96 to 240 h) windows, data-derived tertiles, and serial trajectory summaries were calculated directly from serial samples. Models were benchmarked against age plus admission post-resuscitation Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) and the admission IMPACT extended risk score using five-fold stratified cross-validation. Outcomes were unfavorable outcome (GOSE 1 to 4), less-than-good recovery (GOSE 1 to 6), Disability Rating Scale (DRS) [&ge;]15, mortality, and neuroimaging worsening at 6 months. Results: The cohort contributed 95 serial biomarker profiles, with 90 participants evaluable for 6-month GOSE and 89 for DRS. Unfavorable outcome occurred in 57/90 (63.3%), and less-than-good recovery in 79/90 (87.8%). For unfavorable outcome, IMPACT plus early neoGFAP reached AUROC 0.85 versus 0.84 for IMPACT plus early total GFAP and 0.81 for IMPACT alone. For less-than-good recovery, IMPACT plus late neoGFAP achieved AUROC 0.90 versus 0.84 for late total GFAP and 0.82 for IMPACT alone. Secondary analyses for DRS, mortality, and neuroimaging worsening showed smaller differences. Conclusions: In this retrospective analysis, neoGFAP provided clearer incremental value than total GFAP for recovery-oriented monitoring, especially when late-window reassessment of patients who remained at risk for less-than-good recovery was required. Results support prospective testing of neoGFAP as a pathophysiology-informed adjunct to serial bedside decision making, repeat-assessment thresholds, and recovery stratification.

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Best Practice Manufacturing and Quality Standards for Bacteriophage Therapy Products: Australian Consensus Statements

Watts, K.; Lin, R. C.; Lynch, S.; Warning, J.; Barr, J. J.; Ben Zakour, N.; Campbell, A.; Chan, J.; Collie, L.; Hedges, M.; Hudson, B.; Irwin, A.; Khatami, A.; Kicic, A.; Laucirica, D.; Lauter, C.; Ling, K.-m.; Ng, R.; Pavuk, N.; Rahmatullah, R.; Sinclair, H.; Tucker, E.; Vreugde, S.; Warner, M.; Velickovic, Z.; iredell, j.

2026-08-31 public and global health 10.64898/2026.08.26.26361487 medRxiv
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Objective As antimicrobial resistance (AMR) continues to threaten global public health, bacteriophage therapy products (BTPs) offer a promising alternative to conventional antimicrobials. However, translation into routine clinical practice requires best practice standards for manufacturing and quality control to ensure the consistent safety, quality, and reliability of personalised BTPs produced for individual patients or small cohorts. Design A modified Delphi methodology was used to develop consensus statements, engaging experts from Australia's National Bacteriophage Therapy Regulatory Working Group across the fields of clinical microbiology, phage biology, good manufacturing practice (GMP), regulatory science, and government. The process comprised three iterative phases: (1) structured statement development, (2) an anonymous REDCap survey, and (3) a hybrid consensus meeting. The strength of evidence and recommendations was assessed using the GRADE (Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation) framework. Results Consensus was reached on 35 statements to provide best practice manufacture and quality control guidance for BTPs. These statements address requirements for phage identification and characterisation; define the point at which GMP-aligned processes commence for ubiquitous phages; outline quality control expectations for phage active pharmaceutical ingredient (pAPI) production and maintenance of BTP and host cell repositories. Additional guidance covers quality management systems, including documentation, traceability, and governance. Conclusion These consensus statements provide comprehensive best practice recommendations for the manufacture and quality control of BTPs in Australia. By promoting consistent, safe, and quality-assured approaches to personalised BTPs, they aim to facilitate clinical implementation while remaining aligned with existing international pharmacopoeial standards and regulatory frameworks.

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Population-based urinary pesticide biomonitoring in rural Wisconsin: Longitudinal patterns and determinants of glyphosate, AMPA, and 2,4-D, and other modern use pesticides

Schultz, A. A.; Lange, M.; Shelton, B.; Meinholz, E.; Esselman, D.; Paulsen, E.; Haban, A.; Kesner, V.; Rowe, M.; Burke, R.; Tisler, C.; Tomasallo, C.

2026-08-31 public and global health 10.64898/2026.08.26.26361410 medRxiv
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Background: Population-based biomonitoring of contemporary-use pesticides remains limited in the United States, particularly in rural agricultural regions, and few studies have repeated measurements within the same individuals over time. Methods: We analyzed 28 urinary pesticide-related biomarkers among 600 adults from the population-based Survey of the Health of Wisconsin with archived urine collected during 2008-2016; 296 participants provided repeat urine and updated exposure information in 2025. Detection frequencies, co-detection, and within-person detection patterns were characterized. Generalized estimating equations were used for stacked, repeated-measures analyses of factors associated with detection of aminomethylphosphonic acid (AMPA), glyphosate, 2,4-dichlorophenoxyacetic acid (2,4-D), and any of these three. Prospective-only analyses evaluated more detailed agricultural and recent exposure measures. Results: Glyphosate, AMPA, and 2,4-D were detected in 7.7%, 6.2%, and 4.3% of retrospective specimens and 5.4%, 3.1%, and 4.1% of prospective specimens, respectively. Co-detection and persistent detection across the 9 to 17-year interval was rare. In repeated-measures models, greater fruit and vegetable intake, older age, and male sex were associated with higher 2,4-D detection. Lower household income was associated with lower AMPA detection, while afternoon/evening collection was associated with higher AMPA detection. In prospective analyses, working on field-crop agricultural land showed the strongest agricultural associations, particularly for 2,4-D and detection of any of the three pesticides. Associations were not seen with self-reported conventional versus organic produce consumption. Conclusions: Urinary pesticide detections were generally infrequent in this Wisconsin population. Diet and direct agricultural activities may be more informative exposure pathways than residing near cropland or private well drinking-water characteristics.